Things are getting pretty interesting. Even though every news station will tell you that Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, they are leaving out some very important information. I’m sure everyone has heard that the delegate numbers (including Super Delegates) favor Hillary by a 778 margin, what they leave out is how tight the race really is. Bernie is inching closer all the time, and has brought the pledged delegate gap to an attainable 302. California has 546 delegates up for grabs, and Bernie has the clear advantage there. The withdrawal of Ted Cruz and John Kasich has only improved the situation.
California is unique in many ways. It is progressive. It is large. It has the Top Two Candidates Open Primary Act. Oh dear, confusion ensues. California is different, although they have a traditional voting system for Presidential nominees, (with the exception of NPP -No Party Preference- which I will get into later), down-ticket candidates have different rules. Democrats can vote for Democratic presidential nominees, likewise with Republicans. However, when primary voters show up at the polls they don’t ask for a specific down-ticket ballot, all the candidates are on the same one. This changes everything. For each position the two candidates with the most votes end up on the general ballot this November. This is completely different. Most of the time it really doesn’t matter how many people show up from each party. Republicans choose their nominees and Democrats choose theirs, then they face off in November. In the case of California sheer numbers matter. Because Trump is already the presumptive Republican nominee, voters don’t have as much motivation to miss work or wait in long lines. Conversely, the Democratic contest is hot. With two people still in a race (closer than people realize) voters must show up. This unusual dynamic will undoubtedly help lots of down-ticket democrats in California secure nominations. Remember the top two candidates with the most votes, no matter which party they’re from, get the nomination for the November general election.
There is a secondary benefit in California on June 7. NPP- No Party Preference voters have a whole different set of rules during primaries. When they show up at the polls they may choose to vote Democrat, Independent, or Libertarian. Republican, Green, and Peace & Freedom parties have declined to include the NPP voters. This will dramatically effect presidential race. When Ted Cruz and John Kasich dropped out and made Donald Trump the presumptive Republican nominee, they changed the strategy choices for NPP voters. They no longer need to worry about Donald Trump. He’s a done deal, with Republican establishment beginning to fall in line and grudgingly promise their support, it gives undeclared voters an unusual advantage. They will have the simple choice of deciding who Trump will run against. In this very progressive state they could choose to try to exclude Hillary entirely from the November race by voting for Sanders. With 23.1% of the more than 17.6 registered California voters, NPP votes could push Sanders over the top.
There are still 1,159 delegates available in the final races, and Bernie is favored in all the upcoming states. His path may be slim, but Sanders has one. If Democrats and NPP voters just show up in California he could get the pledged delegate numbers he needs. After that if history repeats, the Super Delegates would fall in line. Those dominoes are already starting to fall, as they are beginning to admit they will vote at the convention for whoever had the majority in their districts. Be of good cheer and stay the course. Bernie Sanders hasn’t quit yet, neither should we.